I’m a mystic man (such a mystic man)
I’m just a mystic man (mystic man)
I man don’t (I man don’t I man don’t)
I don’t drink no champagne (don’t drink no champagne)
No I don’t
And I man don’t (I man don’t) no (I man don’t)
I don’t sniff them cocaine (don’t sniff no cocaine)
I man don’t (I man don’t) no I don’t (I man don’t)
Don’t take them morphine (don’t take no morphine)
I man don’t (I man don’t I man don’t) I don’t take no
(Don’t take no heroin) nonono
‘Cause I’m a man of the past
And I’m living in the present
And I’m walking in the future
Stepping in the future
Man of the past
And I’m living in the present
And I’m walking walking (stepping in the future)
And I’m just a mystic man (such a mystic man)
Got to be a mystic man (mystic man)
Peter Tosh, from “Mystic Man“, 1979
It’s January, 2018, and pharmaceutical sales are plummeting all over the globe, as the general populace realizes just how bad for you many or most of the products these firms sell actually are.
I’ve appended numerous news accounts below to support that assertion.
And people have realized that the stuff they spray on our food is also deadly, and want no part of it anymore, either:
“Consumer is “the least of the issues,” Bernstein analyst Jeremy Redenius wrote in a note to clients after speaking with the German drugmaker’s investor relations team. The problem with the unit, which is floundering in the face of a U.S. slowdown, “is relatively small” compared with the €300 to €400 million hit CropScience earnings could take.”
Prices drop either when demand decreases or supply increases, or both.
That’s why a headline below says “Jazz Pharma Q3 product sales up 6%; earnings down 29%.”
And that’s why another article below reads “Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., India’s largest drugmaker, warned investors that sales could decline in the coming year amid downward pressure on generic drug prices in the U.S.”
And why yet another article reads “Johnson & Johnson JNJ reported mixed first-quarter 2017 results. While earnings beat expectations, sales missed the same due to a slowdown in pharmaceutical product sales.”
All of the articles I’ve appended below hedge as hard as they can against mentioning this larger trend, and instead table local, micro-level plausible-deniability excuses to keep your attention away from it.
Those excuses include:
“the pending $30 billion acquisition of Swiss biotechnology company Actelion Ltd.”
“regulatory issues at one of its biggest factories”
“unfavorable currency developments”
“Diminishing R&D productivity and return on investment”
Those things aren’t completely false, nor are they completely true. Plausible deniability demands that at least a kernel of truth is included. The subconscious of the reader grasps that straw of truth, and swallows the larger premise whole, in exchange for being let off the hook, re: personal responsibility. You’ve been told What To Think, and then accepted that it’s What You Think.
The only problem for the folks using such tactics – and it’s a gigantic, hole-under-the-waterline problem – is that the folk tale of “the Boy who cried ‘Wolf’ ” has had resonance with us for a very long time for a very good reason.
And even their ongoing simultaneous use of carefully-orchestrated spin, hand-waving and smoke-blowing in every language on Earth doesn’t change the underlying fact that they are literally going out of business.
“November 28, 2017 – Pharma’s broken business model: An industry on the brink of terminal decline”
Or, put another way, “The One Percenters’ broken business model: a genetically-related cabal of barely-closeted Death-worshippers on the brink of terminal decline.”
In their headline, they say it’s the business model that’s the problem, versus the truth, that people are literally no longer buying what they are selling.
Please consider sending them highest Love energy as you read this.
January 1, 2015 – Where Have All The Sales Reps Gone?
The death of the pharma sales rep has been greatly exaggerated, however, the role of the sales rep is headed for big changes.
September 27, 2016 – Pharmaceutical Sales Reps Use More Data As In-Person Access to Doctors Declines
April 18, 2017 – J&J (JNJ) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Pharma Sales Slow Down
Johnson & Johnson JNJ reported mixed first-quarter 2017 results. While earnings beat expectations, sales missed the same due to a slowdown in pharmaceutical product sales. The drug and consumer products giant raised its 2017 sales and earnings outlook though only to include the impact of the pending $30 billion acquisition of Swiss biotechnology company Actelion Ltd.
Shares declined 1.4% in pre-market trading .
May 26, 2017 – Sun Pharma Warns ‘New Normal’ Will Push Down Its Sales Next Year
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., India’s largest drugmaker, warned investors that sales could decline in the coming year amid downward pressure on generic drug prices in the U.S. and regulatory issues at one of its biggest factories.
June 30, 2017 – More consumer woes for Bayer drag down sales, earnings forecasts
On Friday, Bayer announced it would be lowering its earnings forecasts with its second-quarter earnings release—and that consumer health was, in part, to blame.
The company cited a “business performance by the consumer health division” that is “weaker than previously expected” as one reason it’d be paring down its full-year sales and earnings forecasts—albeit below a Brazilian inventory backup and “unfavorable currency developments,” both of which are set to take a heftier toll.
Consumer is “the least of the issues,” Bernstein analyst Jeremy Redenius wrote in a note to clients after speaking with the German drugmaker’s investor relations team. The problem with the unit, which is floundering in the face of a U.S. slowdown, “is relatively small” compared with the €300 to €400 million hit CropScience earnings could take, but the company “wanted to clear out the bad news in one go.”
That, of course, doesn’t make it a non-factor, despite that “we knew 2017 was never going to be a strong year,” Redenius said in a separate note. Assuming no growth for the unit, the downgrade would lop €70 million ($80 million) off of earnings, he pointed out.
And the company is already “reinvesting heavily” in turnarounds for brands Dr. Scholl’s and Coppertone, both of which Bayer nabbed in 2014’s $14.2 billion buyout of Merck’s consumer health unit—a deal that was meant to position the company to take the lead in the space.
The new portfolio got off to a slow start, though, and since then, Bayer has quieted down about its ambitions in the arena—even before its $66 billion Monsanto deal agreement signaled a shift in priorities to the agribusiness side.
When it was inked, the Monsanto pact also set off alarm bells for pharma industry watchers who feared it meant Bayer would neglect its pipeline. But for now, Redenius predicts that a pharma forecast bump-up could be on the way “to offset some of the weakness in Crop and Consumer.”
“Coming away from 1Q17 … we felt Bayer’s guidance of high single-digit growth in 2017 EBITDA seemed conservative. Margins for the division will sensibly improve as the major products continue to mature and fewer resources are required to achieve sales,” he wrote.
October 13, 2017 – Pharma Sales Could Be Chilled by Hurricane Damage
November 7, 2017 – Jazz Pharma Q3 product sales up 6%; earnings down 29%
November 14, 2017 – Here’s What’s Behind Synergy Pharmaceuticals’ 15.6% Drop Today
The company’s making inroads with its first commercial-stage drug, but expenses could present big headwinds.
November 28, 2017 – Pharma’s broken business model: An industry on the brink of terminal decline
What we have here is an industry that is entering a vicious cycle of negative growth and terminal decline as its fundamental business model has run out of steam by the Law of Diminishing Returns: Diminishing R&D productivity and return on investment leads to diminishing growth in sales.